Free Transit, Real Costs: What “Zero-Fare” Programs Could Mean for the Bus Market

When I read that New York Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani is proposing to make city bus service free, I see more than a political headline. I see a signal of where transportation conversations are heading.

For millions of riders, it sounds like progress: fewer barriers, simpler access, and a cleaner way to move through the city. But for those of us in the business of keeping fleets running, from public systems to small nonprofits, it also raises a practical question:

If public transit becomes free, what does that mean for everyone else who depends on buses to move people and communities?

How Much Does a “Free” Bus Program Actually Cost?

“Free” transit isn’t exactly free. It just changes who pays the bill.

The Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) spends roughly $19 billion per year operating New York City’s 5,800-bus network, according to its 2024 Financial Plan. That covers drivers, maintenance, insurance, and the replacement cycle that keeps buses safe and road-ready.

Even without fares, those numbers don’t disappear. They just move to a new column in the state budget. To fund a fully free system, the MTA would need an additional $500–$700 million annually, depending on ridership and service frequency (NYC Independent Budget Office, 2024).

Where Do Retired City Buses Go After Fleet Upgrades?

Every time a major city modernizes its fleet, whether for emissions standards or new mandates, hundreds of perfectly usable diesel and hybrid buses hit the secondary market.

That’s where I see a clear opportunity.

At BusesForSale.com, we regularly help schools, churches, and community organizations find these vehicles after they leave municipal service. They’re often well-maintained, fully inspected, and priced at a fraction of the cost of new OEMs.

Public systems might move on, but those vehicles go on to serve new missions — from youth programs to cross-state ministry trips to accessible senior transportation.

Are Free Bus Programs Financially Sustainable?

Globally, the results have been mixed.

• Luxembourg, which went fare-free in 2020, saw public costs rise over 15% despite minimal ridership growth.
• Kansas City, which ran a smaller-scale pilot, reported higher maintenance costs and uneven funding stability by year three.

Those realities matter because they often accelerate bus turnover. When agencies face cost pressure, they sell off older units faster, and that’s when used diesel buses and mini buses become more available and affordable to private buyers.

Why Private Fleets Still Matter Even if Public Transit Becomes Free

Public systems has the potential to move people efficiently, but they can’t meet every local need.

A city bus doesn’t wait for church retreats, field trips, or camp shuttles. It doesn’t reach the rural routes where students live miles from main roads.

That’s why private ownership still matters — and why wheelchair-accessible buses, mini buses, and passenger vans will always have a place.

Free public service may cover the routes. But private transportation covers the relationships — getting people where community, care, and outreach happen.

What Happens to Diesel Buses When Fleets Electrify?

The MTA’s current plan calls for a fully electric fleet by 2040 (MTA Sustainability Plan).

That’s an ambitious goal — and it means thousands of diesel and hybrid buses will be cycled out and enter resale markets over the next decade.

For small operators, that’s a chance to acquire reliable equipment that can still run 12–20 years or 500,000 miles with proper care, according to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). 

While the electric transition will take time, used diesel remains the most accessible bridge for schools, ministries, and shuttle services who need dependable transport now, not five years from now.

The Market Perspective

From where I sit, public fleet changes like Mamdani’s proposal create uncertainty in the short term but opportunity in the long term.

Each major shift, whether driven by policy, technology, or economics, tends to unlock inventory that helps smaller organizations move affordably.

I’ve seen it happen before: what begins as a top-down program eventually opens doors for communities at every level to access better vehicles at sustainable prices.

That’s why we pay attention to these trends at BusesForSale.com. Not because we’re waiting for disruption — but because we understand how to turn it into opportunity.

The Last Stop

If free transit becomes the norm in major cities, it won’t eliminate private transportation. It’ll make flexibility, affordability, and independence matter even more.

Free buses move cities. Private fleets move people.

And for as long as that’s true, we’ll keep helping organizations find the right vehicles to do exactly that — sustainably, practically, and on their own terms.